In the first half of 2026, Nigeria flipped its raw‑material trade story, moving from a 1.67 trillion naira deficit to a 466.79 billion naira surplus, thanks to a export boom and shrinking imports.
For the first time since 2016, Nigeria’s raw‑material trade balance has gone positive. The National Bureau of Statistics revealed that the country posted a 466.79‑billion‑naira surplus in the first half of 2026, a dramatic reversal from the 1.67‑trillion‑naira deficit recorded in the same period of 2025.
Export Explosion Drives the Upswing
Exports leapt by 105.9% year‑on‑year, climbing to 3.84 trillion naira. The surge was especially strong in Q2, where exports hit 2.31 trillion naira, accounting for roughly 60% of the half‑year total. This uptick reflects a growing demand for Nigerian raw materials abroad and a push to diversify export baskets.
Imports Take a Hit
Imports, meanwhile, dipped 4.5% to 3.37 trillion naira. In Q2, imports were 1.79 trillion naira, producing a 515.40‑billion‑naira surplus for the quarter, a sharp turnaround from the 48.61‑billion‑naira deficit seen in Q1 2026.
A Break from a Decade of Deficits
From 2016 to 2025, Nigeria’s raw‑material trade balance was perpetually negative, with the largest deficit of 4.79 trillion naira in 2024. The 2026 surplus marks a significant structural shift, aligning with national policies aimed at boosting local production and reducing import reliance.
Will the Trend Stick?
While analysts applaud the current turnaround, they caution that sustained performance in the coming quarters will be crucial to confirming a long‑term shift. Continued investment in local manufacturing and export incentives will determine if Nigeria can maintain its newfound trade advantage.
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